Death of Diesel

[kobra]

No one has mentioned hydrogen and fuel cells. That is where there seems to be more interest from commercial transportation and manufacturers, including ones like Toyota, Honda and even Cummins.
Here's a summary of a few things said by The Hydrogen Council;
-Battery technology does not have the energy density required for long range commercial use but hydrogen does.
-Hydrogen extraction costs have dropped about 70% in the past decade, but are still too high to be economical unless subsidized.
-Economies of scale are said to have room to drop the price of hydrogen and make it competitive with gasoline and diesel within this next decade.

Now as to whether the above statements made by the hydrogen council proves to play out as they expect is perhaps another story.

What does seem to be clear is that there is a move away from diesel and gas powered ICE, and lots of government regulations and money that is pushing for it. We live in oil and gas country so I don't like the negative impact this may have on our area in the next few years. The way I see it is we can complain all we want about the tide going out, but the tide is going out with or without us.

Of course, YMMV.

B

 

[Cseybert]

Hmm. No more gas or diesel GM vehicles in 14 years? Wonder if whatever is in the Tesla semi can find it’s way into 3/4 ton trucks soon.

Yeah but you’re gonna have to put a trailer behind a truck for the batteries.

 

[kobra]

I wonder about the economic viability of the Tesla semi also for a couple of reasons:
First, the weight of batteries; lithium batteries hold 1% of the energy per pound as diesel. And of course since commercial truckers only get paid for the weight of cargo hauled and GVWR is limited by governments, the weight of the empty truck will be a huge factor in the economics of the Tesla semi. I'm curious how the Tesla semi's CCC will compare to a traditional diesel one.
Second, if a truck has to sit for 3-4 hours to charge in an 8 hour shift, the economics don't add up at all.

Then again, a decade ago Tesla was an eccentric billionaire's hobby and it is now the richest car company on the planet. Elon may know some things we don't.

B

 

[steve49]

Just saw an article regarding the Tesla semi-truck not starting production because they do not have a battery with the energy density required for long range use. I also noticed the GM article stated cars and LIGHT duty trucks, but was no mention regarding their heavy duty diesel pickups and other commercially used vehicles, unless I missed it. The commercial transportation industry as large as it is with all the semi's we see travelling all over this country will take many many years to change to some other alternative, so fossil fuels will still be around for quite along time.

 

[MikeXM]

I wonder about the economic viability of the Tesla semi also for a couple of reasons:
First, the weight of batteries; lithium batteries hold 1% of the energy per pound as diesel. And of course since commercial truckers only get paid for the weight of cargo hauled and GVWR is limited by governments, the weight of the empty truck will be a huge factor in the economics of the Tesla semi. I'm curious how the Tesla semi's CCC will compare to a traditional diesel one.
Second, if a truck has to sit for 3-4 hours to charge in an 8 hour shift, the economics don't add up at all.

Then again, a decade ago Tesla was an eccentric billionaire's hobby and it is now the richest car company on the planet. Elon may know some things we don't.

B

It is said to be 400 miles (640 km) after an 80% charge of 30 minutes. After 400 miles you may want to take a leak or eat... 30 mins is easy to fit in your schedule.

And if the last 10 years tell us anything, in 10 years, autonomy will double.

 

[MikeXM]

Just saw an article regarding the Tesla semi-truck not starting production because they do not have a battery with the energy density required for long range use. I also noticed the GM article stated cars and LIGHT duty trucks, but was no mention regarding their heavy duty diesel pickups and other commercially used vehicles, unless I missed it. The commercial transportation industry as large as it is with all the semi's we see travelling all over this country will take many many years to change to some other alternative, so fossil fuels will still be around for quite along time.

To be clearer, it's not they don't have the battery technology. They do. But the production capacity of the new cell is lagging behind. They just can't supply the demand right now.
It's basically one semi or 5-6 cars. I bet they do better margins on the 5-6 cars than a semi so the business focus is there right now.

 

[JohnandDonna]

No one has mentioned hydrogen and fuel cells. That is where there seems to be more interest from commercial transportation and manufacturers, including ones like Toyota, Honda and even Cummins.
Here's a summary of a few things said by The Hydrogen Council;
-Battery technology does not have the energy density required for long range commercial use but hydrogen does.
-Hydrogen extraction costs have dropped about 70% in the past decade, but are still too high to be economical unless subsidized.
-Economies of scale are said to have room to drop the price of hydrogen and make it competitive with gasoline and diesel within this next decade.

Now as to whether the above statements made by the hydrogen council proves to play out as they expect is perhaps another story.

What does seem to be clear is that there is a move away from diesel and gas powered ICE, and lots of government regulations and money that is pushing for it. We live in oil and gas country so I don't like the negative impact this may have on our area in the next few years. The way I see it is we can complain all we want about the tide going out, but the tide is going out with or without us.

Of course, YMMV.

B

Hydrogen IS the way to go. I am a big proponent of Hydrogen as the power source for ground transportation. Electric is fine for the urban environment but going cross county charging takes way to long and the range for towing is poor. With hydrogen it can actually be burned in an internal combustion engine or of course used to power a fuel cell. Either way you get water out of the tail pipe and it is about as quick to fill up as with gasoline. While I will always love the power and sound of a big V8, I unfortunately think its days are numbered. I also wonder what the future has in store for diesel. Go Hydo!!!

 

[Brewbud]

I have a deposit down on the mid-level Rivian R1T with 300 mile range. The R1T is close in size to the Chevy Colorado. I will likely get my refund because I love my Ram and don't want to sell the LJ yet. Maybe I can sell my reservation. 0-60 in 3.0 seconds still gives me pause though.

 

[Firebird]

I have a deposit down on the mid-level Rivian R1T with 300 mile range. The R1T is close in size to the Chevy Colorado. I will likely get my refund because I love my Ram and don't want to sell the LJ yet. Maybe I can sell my reservation. 0-60 in 3.0 seconds still gives me pause though.

What are the delivery estimates for Rivian? That is a very interesting truck

 

[Carpenterhow]

What are the delivery estimates for Rivian? That is a very interesting truck

 

[Brewbud]

What are the delivery estimates for Rivian? That is a very interesting truck

It was supposed to be last fall. Covid messed that up. It is now this Summer. With my order number I expect it to be late Summer or Fall.

 

[kobra]

Hydrogen / electric will be beta tested in commercial trucks next year...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...avistar-hydrogen-fuel-cell-trucks/4283216001/

B

 

[psmura]

I have a deposit down on the mid-level Rivian R1T with 300 mile range. The R1T is close in size to the Chevy Colorado. I will likely get my refund because I love my Ram and don't want to sell the LJ yet. Maybe I can sell my reservation. 0-60 in 3.0 seconds still gives me pause though.

The 0-60 is impressive. Why on earth did they decide to make it look worse then a Ridgeline? You would be crazy to give up any of your current rides for the Riv.

 

[Brewbud]

The 0-60 is impressive. Why on earth did they decide to make it look worse then a Ridgeline? You would be crazy to give up any of your current rides for the Riv.

I like the looks except for the front headlights. That kind of ruins the look for me.

 

[Chandne]

These are very interesting developments. Diesel is being phased out even in Europe, where diesel was quite popular till recently. My friend in Milan is shopping for a new vehicle and follows the developments. I'm looking forward to the new electric or hydrogen trucks that come out. I'd be willing to get one for sure, if it is easy enough to charge or replenish where we travel. This decade will be interesting in that regard.

 

[Wmhjr]

These are very interesting developments. Diesel is being phased out even in Europe, where diesel was quite popular till recently. My friend in Milan is shopping for a new vehicle and follows the developments. I'm looking forward to the new electric or hydrogen trucks that come out. I'd be willing to get one for sure, if it is easy enough to charge or replenish where we travel. This decade will be interesting in that regard.

Diesel decline has ended but long-term outlook remains bleak

SUV demand is helping to prop up diesel sales in Europe for now, but a move toward electrification and the need to meet new emissions targets are not helping.

europe.autonews.com

It's a little more complicated than that, however we need to be clear of the different market segments. Primarily it's the smaller of the vehicles in Europe where sales have dropped the most, and which are forecasted to decline significantly. No mention is really made of the truck segment - really because in Europe there really isn't a "truck" segment like there is in the US. If you've lived abroad, you are obviously aware of the differences not only culturally, but also of vehicle fleets, and even the typical uses for vehicles.

There is actually a potential upside here. As demand for Diesel drops in Europe, that may allow for us to regain excess Diesel capacity in the US, potentially dropping prices back to parity (or better) with unleaded regular. Another potential upside is that due to common sense, our vehicles may in fact retain better value over time. I have no issues with EVs. However, it will be a REALLY long time before an even remotely affordable heavy duty truck capable of pulling the loads lots of us here use the trucks for, including the distances we pull. If production starts to decline, then those of us with "legacy" stump pullers may end up with the pot of gold at the end of the proverbial rainbow.

Not saying this WILL happen, but it's a possibility.

 

[Chandne]

Good thoughts. I was referring to diesel passenger cars in Europe. No other country has a large pickup segment that we have here. The only thing is- the vast majority of the trucks sold here are gas and half tons, so the diesel demand will not go up, nor will the EPA relax is stand on the polluting factor of diesels. I think trucks like the Ford PowerBoost is the next progression (great MPG, I hear) before full-on electric can happen.

 

[Wmhjr]

Good thoughts. I was referring to diesel passenger cars in Europe. No other country has a large pickup segment that we have here. The only thing is- the vast majority of the trucks sold here are gas and half tons, so the diesel demand will not go up, nor will the EPA relax is stand on the polluting factor of diesels. I think trucks like the Ford PowerBoost is the next progression (great MPG, I hear) before full-on electric can happen.

Yes. Of course, also remember a couple other things. First, sales of diesel non-commercial trucks increased by 23% so demand of those vehicles (not the fuel). My better half and I were just talking about how many people used to, versus do, prefer diesels to pull their horse trailers. The second thing which is a constraining factor is that we shouldn't forget about how or state and federal governments will likely have a vote in this as well. I unfortunately live in PA, with the highest fuel taxes in the USA. And on top of that, taxes on diesel are higher than on gasoline. So it's also possible that the dimwits that some people vote into office will take away those opportunities and just make us pay more.....

 

[kobra]

And I thought Canada had so much "free" stuff up there?
Are you saying that taxes continually increase to pay for it?
Huh... who would've thought.

Not really a dig at Canada, but more so at the direction of my own country; Damn shame.

Back on topic, I do believe that TAXES will make the future of diesel less economically viable than alternative solutions; artificially increasing the cost of trucks to level the playing field for these alternative solutions.
The hydrogen technology sounds the most interesting to me... but you just can't beat the torque of those massive electric motors! Maybe a Hydrogen powered generator to power an electric truck

Yes, a hydrogen powered "generator"/electric truck is what is being developed by GM and Navistar planned to be in broad trials with JB Hunt next year.
The key technology is hydrogen fuel cells, which is basically a way to have the hydrogen fuel create electrical energy to drive an electric motor. The exhaust products are water and no harmful emissions. No batteries needed, as the energy is not being stored, it is being generated by the fuel at the time it's needed; which is basically what we do now with ICE technology. It really is a genius system and much simpler than ICE.

Ballard Power Systems out of BC, Canada has been a global leader in this technology, working on fuel cells since the early 80's. It has taken that long to develop and refine, and is still not in wide production yet. Maybe it's finally the right time for fuel cell technology, or maybe there is something else that will win out.

One of the biggest hurdles is that while hydrogen exists all around us (most obviously in water), it takes a lot of energy to separate hydrogen from the other atoms. I don't know the details of the science, but from my layman's POV it seems like the net energy gain is very small or perhaps even negative. But that didn't stop the broad development of ethanol, which is only popular because there is enough government push and subsidies behind it.

Hydrogen Fuel Cells are an interesting alternative that is already capable of delivering the energy needed for long distance heavy hauling. The infrastructure for fueling and hydrogen extraction are the pieces that seem to be next in development.

B

 

[Great White North Eh]

Yes, a hydrogen powered "generator"/electric truck is what is being developed by GM and Navistar planned to be in broad trials with JB Hunt next year.
The key technology is hydrogen fuel cells, which is basically a way to have the hydrogen fuel create electrical energy to drive an electric motor. The exhaust products are water and no harmful emissions. No batteries needed, as the energy is not being stored, it is being generated by the fuel at the time it's needed; which is basically what we do now with ICE technology. It really is a genius system and much simpler than ICE.

Ballard Power Systems out of BC, Canada has been a global leader in this technology, working on fuel cells since the early 80's. It has taken that long to develop and refine, and is still not in wide production yet. Maybe it's finally the right time for fuel cell technology, or maybe there is something else that will win out.

One of the biggest hurdles is that while hydrogen exists all around us (most obviously in water), it takes a lot of energy to separate hydrogen from the other atoms. I don't know the details of the science, but from my layman's POV it seems like the net energy gain is very small or perhaps even negative. But that didn't stop the broad development of ethanol, which is only popular because there is enough government push and subsidies behind it.

Hydrogen Fuel Cells are an interesting alternative that is already capable of delivering the energy needed for long distance heavy hauling. The infrastructure for fueling and hydrogen extraction are the pieces that seem to be next in development.

B

So we are going to be pulling water trailers to power are trucks...I’m so confused or maybe I’m a visionary? No just confused .