WOW!

[Bozo]

That’s all I got. I took a drive through the local dealers lots yesterday and was amazed and alarmed at the same time. Absolutely no inventory of HD 1 tons.......of any brand! Very little inventory of all other vehicles. Signs were out, “we buy cars”. This tells me that things are not well in the current economic/political/COVID fiasco. How long can these dealers survive? With all the crazy legislation proposed, makes me think/ ponder what the future holds. Anyhow, I would think that maybe ordering would get the best deals now, but only if manufacturers alter their incentives/offer incentives and guarantee them on the order of, instead of upon delivery of new vehicles. Who knows where the price of fuel goes in the coming months and years(least of considerations if buying an 80k vehicle, but still a consideration if traveling). Prices across the board are skyrocketing and traditional thinking says this will be reflected in vehicle pricing as well. Although trade pricing is up, it is all relative as inventories are tight driving new prices up. What to do..........

 

[steve49]

The issue for low inventory is the electronics chip industry shortage that's the problem now, the local dealers here are pretty bare as well.

 

[gimmie11s]

Its ugly out there for sure. Only way to get what you want right now is special order.

 

[jadmt]

great time to sell. buddy sold his 2020 duramax to Northwest motorsport for over the MSRP. they came to his house and picked it up and cut him a check on the spot. They asked him if he knew anyone else interested in selling.

 

[RichM752]

Sold my 2016 Ram 2500 to a dealer for high private party KBB price. The came with a cashiers check and picked up the truck.

 

[Bozo]

The issue for low inventory is the electronics chip industry shortage that's the problem now, the local dealers here are pretty bare as well.

Yes, chip shortage is a deal, but reality is, if nothing to sell, hard to make payroll etc. Can’t sell what you don’t have, and the uncertainty ripples throughout the economy. I still think vehicles are way overpriced and rebates/incentives should be altered to be applied on orders, no matter the delivery date. Now for the new wrinkle: push for decarbonizing transportation, abolishing fracking, and all the other green b.s.. Who knows what fuel prices will be when we take delivery of our 10-17 mpg trucks? I just fill the tank, but it does alter my habits when fuel goes north of $3/ gallon. They may very well push for another “guzzler” tax on anything non-electric. That being said, “ I am still looking for that killer deal, but will not entertain anything less than 12% off msrp before rebate/incentives.......this could take awhile.

 

[JohnandDonna]

Yes, chip shortage is a deal, but reality is, if nothing to sell, hard to make payroll etc. Can’t sell what you don’t have, and the uncertainty ripples throughout the economy. I still think vehicles are way overpriced and rebates/incentives should be altered to be applied on orders, no matter the delivery date. Now for the new wrinkle: push for decarbonizing transportation, abolishing fracking, and all the other green b.s.. Who knows what fuel prices will be when we take delivery of our 10-17 mpg trucks? I just fill the tank, but it does alter my habits when fuel goes north of $3/ gallon. They may very well push for another “guzzler” tax on anything non-electric. That being said, “ I am still looking for that killer deal, but will not entertain anything less than 12% off msrp before rebate/incentives.......this could take awhile.

I have had similar thoughts to yours regarding future fuel price increases. However there should be some offset to this as more and more "Green" (Cough Cough, yea right) vehicles replace gas and diesel. Less demand so that those of us that prefer gas and diesel powered vehicles can continue to drive them. Of course who knows what crazy legislation the current administration may come up with.

 

[Frank]

Supply shortages are originating overseas where they are less truthful about Covid's effects. I've had conversations with suppliers and customers in China for example, and shocker those numbers are totally made up. Factories are having to shut down and they won't put it in writing for fear of the government. India is on fire right now in the news, but that's only because they played ignorant for a year hoping the vaccine would get there before they fell off the cliff.

And fuel is increasing because the value of the dollar is going down from all the stimulus. The money supply has increased by 28% since Covid. We "printed" as much money in the past 15 months than we did the entire 10 years prior. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

Blaming politicians is useless, it's so one side can blame the other and imply they can fix it if you vote for them. No they can't, this is going to be a long-term climb out of the depths. And it will happen no matter what any politician does, they really don't control the economy like they want you to believe.

 

[gimmie11s]

Supply shortages are originating overseas where they are less truthful about Covid's effects. I've had conversations with suppliers and customers in China for example, and shocker those numbers are totally made up. Factories are having to shut down and they won't put it in writing for fear of the government. India is on fire right now in the news, but that's only because they played ignorant for a year hoping the vaccine would get there before they fell off the cliff.

And fuel is increasing because the value of the dollar is going down from all the stimulus. The money supply has increased by 28% since Covid. We "printed" as much money in the past 15 months than we did the entire 10 years prior. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

Blaming politicians is useless, it's so one side can blame the other and imply they can fix it if you vote for them. No they can't, this is going to be a long-term climb out of the depths. And it will happen no matter what any politician does, they really don't control the economy like they want you to believe.

Eh. That's your opinion which may or may not have some truths hidden in there.

Asia is working right now and producing. The US simply cannot receive the product quick enough. The supply chain is broken because the ports are completely locked up. There are record breaking numbers of container ships at berth in all US ports. Union labor is slow and ships are physically larger than ever before causing massive delays. Some ships have been at berth for MONTHs which is historic and before now has never happened.

The US shipping crisis is not going away as 33 cargo ships float off the coast of LA waiting to dock

Port delays in Southern California are near a record high and helping drive major shortages in the US, as massive ships wait weeks to dock and unload.

www.businessinsider.com

This is a huge part of the supply problem in the US and it affects everything from home building to car buying and everything else you shop for weekly.

Inflation is up and will continue to rise until a surge of supply brings prices back down to reasonable levels. This will happen--although not soon. Likely end of 2021 or middle of 2022.

 

[H3LZSN1P3R]

There is really never any 3/4- 1 tons here at the dealers you gotta go out of town to get one

 

[DeepH20Driller]

And those of us who work in oil and gas industry are blessed, with every day that goes by that we have a job!! Luckily, I’m in exploration in South America, where we look to have at least another 5 years of work. My colleagues that where drilling in Gulf of Mexico, weren’t so blessed. This administration definitely not making it easy for us to keep working!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Frank]

Eh. That's your opinion which may or may not have some truths hidden in there.

Asia is working right now and producing. The US simply cannot receive the product quick enough. The supply chain is broken because the ports are completely locked up. There are record breaking numbers of container ships at berth in all US ports. Union labor is slow and ships are physically larger than ever before causing massive delays. Some ships have been at berth for MONTHs which is historic and before now has never happened.

The US shipping crisis is not going away as 33 cargo ships float off the coast of LA waiting to dock

Port delays in Southern California are near a record high and helping drive major shortages in the US, as massive ships wait weeks to dock and unload.

www.businessinsider.com

This is a huge part of the supply problem in the US and it affects everything from home building to car buying and everything else you shop for weekly.

Inflation is up and will continue to rise until a surge of supply brings prices back down to reasonable levels. This will happen--although not soon. Likely end of 2021 or middle of 2022.

You are talking cars, I'm talking the economy in general which you see starting to show up at the end user. It's not my opinion, its my job. I'm in it everyday. Every facility I work with in India for example is lights off as of last week.

Shipping may be backed up but critical parts are short and late. And no, Asia is not working and producing at full strength. Orders and products are being prioritized and eventually it trickles up.

 

[gimmie11s]

You are talking cars, I'm talking the economy in general which you see starting to show up at the end user. It's not my opinion, its my job. I'm in it everyday. Every facility I work with in India for example is lights off as of last week.

Shipping may be backed up but critical parts are short and late. And no, Asia is not working and producing at full strength. Orders and products are being prioritized and eventually it trickles up.

Did you read my post? Im not talking only cars.

I'll concede Asia is not at fully capacity, but they are working--the current bottleneck is the ports.

 

[Frank]

Did you read my post? Im not talking only cars.

I'll concede Asia is not at fully capacity, but they are working--the current bottleneck is the port

Just wait. It's coming. I'm already 12 months out on critical raw materials for defense orders. Again, I'm not reading internet articles I'm planning with customers and suppliers across a broad range of industries. Anything with tech in it is going to take a beating just like car production.

 

[Will_T]

Just wait. It's coming. I'm already 12 months out on critical raw materials for defense orders. Again, I'm not reading internet articles I'm planning with customers and suppliers across a broad range of industries. Anything with tech in it is going to take a beating just like car production.

Geno's told me today that the reason their fuel caps are backordered is that the company that manufacturers them can not get enough raw material. So it is not just defense orders, but all the way down to orders for fuel caps!

 

[Frank]

Geno's told me today that the reason their fuel caps are backordered is that the company that manufacturers them can not get enough raw material. So it is not just defense orders, but all the way down to orders for fuel caps!

That's the thing...people don't realize how low production some materials are, and how quickly they disappear when higher runners need to get out the door. Several years ago we took an order for DoD to retrofit some components across the entire fleet with a higher spec metal. Not huge dollars but we bought out the entire world supply sitting in warehouses plus 3 months production. There was no capacity to turn up. The few manufacturers that built to that spec just had to muddle through.

 

[Pronto]

I'm glad I ordered my truck when I did. I only wish I bought an extra one.

 

[gimmie11s]

Just wait. It's coming. I'm already 12 months out on critical raw materials for defense orders. Again, I'm not reading internet articles I'm planning with customers and suppliers across a broad range of industries. Anything with tech in it is going to take a beating just like car production.

Aaaaaaahhhhhhh.. Youre the "I work in defense, top secret" guy. Gotcha. You must be the only one with real-world experience on this site. Lmaoooooooo

Well noted!

 

[Frank]

Aaaaaaahhhhhhh.. Youre the "I work in defense, top secret" guy. Gotcha. You must be the only one with real-world experience on this site. Lmaoooooooo

Well noted!

Do you argue and insult everybody? Seems to be a pattern.

I work in components that go in many applications. Including defense applications. When you take a defense order by law it is filled before anyone else's. When materials start going short for defense orders, it escalates the problem for anyone else who uses the same materials. Specific chemicals, alloys, resins, etc. People start substituting where they can and it affects more areas.

Like I said, anything with electronics in it is on shaky ground right now. All it takes is one single chip maker to stop hundred of billions in worldwide auto production. In the past month or so there have been a lot of sudden and deep shortages of random materials coming out of Asia. And Asian manufacturers and governments are not being transparent in how much they are being affected because they don't want their customers to second source.

 

[gimmie11s]

Do you argue and insult everybody? Seems to be a pattern.

Do you? It takes two, good sir.

Have a great day!