2023 crystal ball thread what do you think is going to happen in the next few months?

[daboxx]

I was about to pull the trigger on a 2022 3500 HO when a couple of events gave me pause. I would like the hives opinion.

First, interest rates. What impact do you think it will have? If the Fed continues to hike rates, what impact on the truck market do you think it will have? Will prices continue to go up will they stabilize, or go down?

The big questions are more nuanced, and requires a bit if set up….

Rumor has it that GM will have a power increase in the Duramax for 2023. If true then all 3 of the big 3 will again be on similar or relatively equal footing power wise.

This is a good thing in my opinion, I love the competition.


What impact will this have on the truck market? What impact on Ram specifically? Will the low output Cummins still be a thing? Given that GM and Ford have a single engine producing the big power will RAM be forced to only have the HO? Will transmissions become an issue now that 2 of the 3 are running 10 speeds?



I have no idea what any of this means, other than the fact that now is the best time in a very long time to be in the market for a truck. At this point I think all three have proven excellent engines. While the 10 speeds are still new, they are appearing to hold up. Which leads us back to Ram. What are they going to do?



I would love the hives thoughts.

 

[spinned]

With all the supply shortages I think they will move the refresh off another year.

 

[iflyskyhigh]

 

[Ostracize]

they are appearing to hold up

Are they though? Sorry (but also not).
It's hard to find statistics to qualify how many units are actually effected, but I'll be honest while I was in my search for which rig to order I was put off by reports of their issues. Especially reports arising from heavy towing, minor bumping of hp and even increasing tire size.

But, to your question, IMHO simple supply and demand will dictate prices. I believe we are unlikely to see stability in pricing until these three factors stabilize in this order: supply shortages for new builds, used market prices, and then lenders forced into competitive posture from developing buyer's market for both new and used financing.

Edit: if I were in your shoes, I'd pull the trigger on a '22 if you can get where you're happy with price/financing offers.
Sellers markets generally garner less quality products over time(scaled with time) dictated by margins. -2cents

 

[Illymost]

With all the supply shortages I think they will move the refresh off another year.

Or 3. I just don’t see anything on supply side getting resolved in a year. Maybe 2. We are a drought and bad planting season away from food shortages on top of other shortages. Not the best time to unveil the next generation. I would buy what I want now, provided you can get it for a fair price, then make the decision on a refresh in a few years with a few more years of data. Who wants the first year of a new transmission anyways? Did that once with a 2018 Expedition. Never again.

 

[daboxx]

Are they though? Sorry (but also not).
It's hard to find statistics to qualify how many units are actually effected, but I'll be honest while I was in my search for which rig to order I was put off by reports of their issues. Especially reports arising from heavy towing, minor bumping of hp and even increasing tire size.

Honest question. Where are you seeing that they are failing in excessive numbers? A few reports of some failing is not an epidemic. The CP4 failures, Ford 6.0, LB7 injectors etc; Those where known issues I have not seen the same from the trannies. I admit I have not looked hard, but they do not seem as prevalent as the above.

I agree with the supply and demand aspect. With fuel prices going up and financing cost increasing do you not see a drop in demand? I have no idea what sort of correction we might see if any just curious.

I appreciate your -2cents!

​

 

[6.7 Bluey]

I’ve owned two F-150’s with the ten speed. Unladen, the truck likes to shift from first to third and vice versa on the downshift. My first truck would occasionally hang in third and downshift into first so hard it sounded like the tranny was going to fall out. My second truck’s transmission shifted like butter even at max payload and a 8000# camper strapped to it. My first test drive of a Ford Super Duty, the dang transmission dropped itself into first gear so hard it made the truck shutter. I realized then why a truck with only 2000 miles on it was back on the lot. I’m not sold on the ten speed at this point. Long story short, given supply chain issues and interest rates, I’d buy now. The next generation is going to have more than its share of issues, I suspect.

 

[Ostracize]

Honest question. Where are you seeing that they are failing in excessive numbers? A few reports of some failing is not an epidemic. The CP4 failures, Ford 6.0, LB7 injectors etc; Those where known issues I have not seen the same from the trannies. I admit I have not looked hard, but they do not seem as prevalent as the above.

I agree with the supply and demand aspect. With fuel prices going up and financing cost increasing do you not see a drop in demand? I have no idea what sort of correction we might see if any just curious.

I appreciate your -2cents!

​

I'll start by surrendering ground on "epidemic".. Which I don't feel would be fair to categorize what I found back when I was shopping (was mostly shopping/comparing Ford v Ram)
That's said, I personally would dig heals in with "excessive numbers". When reading posts from owners on their own respective forums, and reading about class action shinanigans... It gave me pause for sure. So, given that "excessive" is subjective in this context I'd just say when it comes to certain components like trans, HPFPs, heads, lowers ends, and safety items (ie gm's airbag/ignition margins choices killing people)... My personal thinking was/is the minor benifit of the 10 was not worth the risk.
Additionally, I specifically ordered the HO not because I "needed" over 1k tq... But because of the AS69RC.

If fuel prices raise higher and stay there for >1yr... Then yeah I'd agree that would likely lower demand ... But I don't think it would lower it below the supply shortage delta.
Also, I personally don't think "they" can allow prices to stay that high economically. Could be wrong, hope I'm not.

 

[Poolmonkey]

Spend it while it is still worth something

 

[Myfast70]

The 10 speed is a great idea and when they work as intended they work very well. The problem is that most of them don't seem to know when to shift or how (meaning from this gear to that gear and which one to go to). I think a big part of that comes from the "adaptive learning strategy" that they try to run with them. I feel if they were more mechanical in operation, similar to old 3 speed transmissions back in the day, they would be better and more predictable. The ones I've been in always seem confused as to what gear they should be in. But once again, when you're in a truck that shifts as intended they are pretty bad ass. I can tell you this, I don't think I'd want a first year 10 speed in a Ram. I'd prefer they get it worked out for a year or two before I get one

 

[Firebird]

Too many continued shortages are predicted, and Brandon ain’t helping any. Probably no changes

 

[sanda]

Too many continued shortages are predicted, and Brandon ain’t helping any. Probably no changes

And we ain't seen nothing yet

 

[Thisnthat]

placed an order 12/1, dealer price protected it, MSRP on the exact same truck today is almost $5k higher (less than 4 months later). Consensus seems to be that more rate hikes are coming…and I agree with others, not crazy about the idea of a 10 speed

i personally wouldn’t have bought one if I hadn’t been able to get more for my 2016 3500 than what I paid for it new while also getting the “forum discount”…a discount that is almost unheard of these days when speaking with the ”general public”…most of them have the look on their face where they think I’m telling some fairy tale about magical discounts no one else knows about

ive heard of a few Ford dealerships discounting their HDs, not like people are seeing on the Rams, and I haven’t seen any Chevy/GM dealers discounting more than a grand or so…that is if they can even get the trucks as the new plant in Canada has been a sore spot on the GM forums…trucks built and waiting months (yes months) to be transferred to have the bedliner sprayed in or just not shipped out at all

to each their own, but I wouldnt wait around too long

i also like the tow mirrors on the current Rams, that’s all I’ve driven the past 25 years…yes, I liked the convex corner better, but still like these better than Fords or GMs new mirrors…and Im not sure I’d like the mirrors that I’ve seen speculated to be on the 2023s

 

[joelp]

rates popping. potential wheat shortages. god knows what happens when china goes russia--->ukraine on taiwan?

do what feels right for your situation today OP, because no one out there has a working crystal ball that i've seen.

go with your gut. no one knows what's gonna happen next.

 

[Brutal_HO]

rates popping. potential wheat shortages. god knows what happens when china goes russia--->ukraine on taiwan?

do what feels right for your situation today OP, because no one out there has a working crystal ball that i've seen.

go with your gut. no one knows what's gonna happen next.

Wheat futures are up, and prices per bushell are up a bit, but the US is the 5th largest producer and has a net export of around 700-800 million bushells per year.

We need to stop growing and subsidizing corn for ethanol... BTW, the canned corn quality lately has been sh*t.

 

[Shadowboxin20]

We subsidize corn for ethanol in case there is a massive shortage or global supply shock. Last I remember it was under 5% but that’s a big difference if it needs to be turned on and removed from fuel to be used as food. And while I hate government in anything I think this is one I’m ok with

 

[Lary0071]

I believe that as the feds increase interest rates, the cost of many (all?) goods and services will increase as well. Companies leverage loans for running businesses, and as the cost of loans increases, the cost of goods has to increase to maintain the satisfaction of shareholders. The cost of trucks and cars as well as many other products will be going up over the next 12 months. The cost of borrowing money to buy cars and trucks will go up, In the near future, the best time to buy is now. The better time to buy was early last spring. My 7/7/21 ordered 2022 has increased almost $4k US on the Build My Ram website. I bet that this trend continues for at least another couple years.

You'll need to jump on the moving train at some point, it is not going to stop going by.

 

[sanda]

We subsidize corn for ethanol in case there is a massive shortage or global supply shock. Last I remember it was under 5% but that’s a big difference if it needs to be turned on and removed from fuel to be used as food. And while I hate government in anything I think this is one I’m ok with

I've never been ok with the ethanol scam. The loss of power and mileage on 10% easily offsets the advantages over pure gas. Immediately after ethanol got into full swing all corn related products took a big price increase. Besides the obvious store shelf prices our beef and pork producers prices went up. So many other crops were affected as farmers took those crops out of production to plant corn and jump on the ethanol bandwagon. One thing I find curious is driving through Iowa and seeing all the pure gas stations.

 

[sanda]

I believe that as the feds increase interest rates, the cost of many (all?) goods and services will increase as well. Companies leverage loans for running businesses, and as the cost of loans increases, the cost of goods has to increase to maintain the satisfaction of shareholders. The cost of trucks and cars as well as many other products will be going up over the next 12 months. The cost of borrowing money to buy cars and trucks will go up, In the near future, the best time to buy is now. The better time to buy was early last spring. My 7/7/21 ordered 2022 has increased almost $4k US on the Build My Ram website. I bet that this trend continues for at least another couple years.

You'll need to jump on the moving train at some point, it is not going to stop going by.

Well said. Right now inflation is running at 7% yearly. That 50k priced vehicle today will be 53.5 k in one year. Even if you finance today you would save money in the long run. These are very conservative numbers as we know the price of vehicles are going up more than my 7% example.

 

[iflyskyhigh]

Well said. Right now inflation is running at 7% yearly. That 50k priced vehicle today will be 53.5 k in one year. Even if you finance today you would save money in the long run. These are very conservative numbers as we know the price of vehicles are going up more than my 7% example.

Inflations numbers given are pure fantasy. Double whatever they tell you.